Awakening: Long Range Winter Thread -- Part 2 - Page 53 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Awakening: Long Range Winter Thread -- Part 2

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2 minutes ago, Weatherman89 said:

IT'S HAPPENING! 

PATTERN1.jpg

That is a -EPO unlike any I have ever seen before. ;):P May want to fix. :) 

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1 minute ago, uncle w said:

some of the snowiest Decembers in NYC had 1/2 to 3/4 of the total normal amount of precipitation...1995 had 50% of normal precipitation but snowfall was way above normal...

You always come through with the right stat at the right time. Cheers.

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Bias correction.

 

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full(20).gif

 

If blank, model image not available

 

 

If blank, model image not available

 

 

MJO / WEEKLIES / CRUDFS  ALL LOOK GOOD HERE THRU NEW YEARS. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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looking at the animation posted by @PB GFI and @33andrain

is this a slight relaxation / reload period as depicted? Could be a time frame to watch for white, of course this was just one run and weenie range

 

gfs_T850a_us_51.png

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11 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

You always come through with the right stat at the right time. Cheers.

the Decembers of 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963 and 1966 had snow on the ground Christmas day and had less total precipitation than normal...2000 had less precipitation also...

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2 minutes ago, QTown Snow said:

looking at the animation posted by @PB GFI and @33andrain

is this a slight relaxation / reload period as depicted? Could be a time frame to watch for white, of course this was just one run and weenie range

 

gfs_T850a_us_51.png

 

Precisely the period to watch for a big one!  Where’s @Chris L

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Always like to see the PNA ridge correcting more poleward...

 

More stout NAO doesn't hurt as well.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_fh132_trend.gif

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Always like to see the PNA ridge correcting more poleward...

 

More stout NAO doesn't hurt as well.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_fh132_trend.gif

 

Noticed that too. Especially as we move into the 4-5 day range where verification scores tend to increase.

index.gif

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6 minutes ago, clags said:

Thank you! Great to be here! I’m impressed!

Welcome man

This is Anthony from facebook :thumbsupsmileyanim:

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Only because I know there are interested parties... Baroclinic zone will be too far to the east post cyclogenesis for the 12/7-12/8 event on the 12z GFS. But as noted above, quality trends. Never a bad thing seeing a ridge traverse the entire northern hemisphere.

 

image.png

 

12/7-12/8:

image.png

 

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2 minutes ago, QTown Snow said:

nice energy here 

2017-12-01 11_20_20-500 Mb Hgt, Vort North America 12z GFS.png

It's okay to see I guess. For us to get snow from it, it would need to dig further south so any close off at h5 would occur to our south. This is for NYC, btw. As depicted, not a realistic threat south of there.

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