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Long Range Pattern Discussion | The Grand Finale

33andrain

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Just now, Ray8002 said:

 

I was wrong. :(

Meh...I reposted it because you were one run off. The big hits are coming today!!

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

GFS a touch more amped through 51 hours. Tad better PNA signal.

But the trend of keeping yesterday's ULL around longer continues. 

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Increased amplification and better PNA continues hour 63. I'll try to ignore the ULL issue over Maine.

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

The German coming that far north is not insignificant.

 

no offense.. as it is nice to see. but i kind of need the main models on board for me to get excited. 

 

but let me go see what the CRAS says. 

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So is this bc of the blocking pattern that the storm can’t come up north?

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1 minute ago, Nchaboy said:

So is this bc of the blocking pattern that the storm can’t come up north?

Yes. Both directly and indirectly.

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with the ao staying negative and the pna positive there is a chance for something big or small depending on where you live...the nao will be neutral this time...

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2 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Yes. Both directly and indirectly.

Thank you!! 

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2 minutes ago, Christof said:

Another stupid question - PNA stands for?

Pacific North American [Pattern]

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4 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

So is this bc of the blocking pattern that the storm can’t come up north?

 

 

Great question. I’ll leave it to the pros to answer completely

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12z GFS trend at 72hr. Notice trend for ULL over Nova Scotia, further west. Too much confluence from it.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif.01585411802c7b6cf30efb70b9a84c5f.gif

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3 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

Gfs is going to be better than 6z. 

Yes, likely an improvement because of the PNA. But EC heights are roughly the same and the ULL is an issue, as @Weathergun explained earlier.

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