March to come in like a Lion. 3/2 Coastal Storm Discussion

[33andrain 65,023]

[Superstorm93 24,592]

75 hours

 

Definitely need to see the indies 

 

[33andrain 65,023]

[CCB! 35,172]

3 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Is there a way to see how much QPF after hour 70?

Unfortunately not from SV. Best I can do is provide the 24-hour total frames from that point in a gif.

 

[Superstorm93 24,592]

Looks like a good amount of members went to the east 

 

Willing to bet there's some snowy members in there...

 

[Superstorm93 24,592]

Tons of variance at 500mb 

 

[PB GFI 42,857]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

Nice hold man 

[nyblizzard50 2,205]

One of the best synoptic analysts out there at his best: today we found out a beast is coming, a severe one at that. Tomorrow we start to tune in the details in terms of how much rain and how much snow. Cranky!

[Jake732 399]

https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/968557366441664512

 

How come in the specific case we dont look at the 32 line?

[jjvesnow 151]

2 minutes ago, Jake732 said:

https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/968557366441664512

 

How come in the specific case we dont look at the 32 line?

Because all other levels are cold enough.  700, 850, 925 mb are all below freezing. Its just the immediate surface that is right around freezing or right above freezing.

[Superstorm93 24,592]

Just now, Jake732 said:

https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/968557366441664512

 

How come in the specific case we dont look at the 32 line?

 

The main way we get snow from this is from dynamic cooling, since we're lacking a cold airmass. 

 

Heaviest precip=best chance for a paste bomb. 

[33andrain 65,023]

[Isotherm 10,774]

6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Nice hold man 

 

 

Thanks @PB GFI. Fair to say that the GFS is mostly incorrect at this juncture I think, after seeing the EPS generally corroborate the op Euro and UKIE solutions.

[Jake732 399]

e39 no prob

[CTsnowstorm628 99]

Ok ok ok. I'm back. This one looks interesting. Favoring interior of course, but can't rule out some accumulation even closer to the coast if things break right. Should be a fun few days track upper level features!

[NSFW Weather Guy 10,061]

Mean 

[Superstorm93 24,592]

[33andrain 65,023]

SREFs a tick snowier again. 

 

[CCB! 35,172]

Our main players as viewed on GOES-16:

 

[33andrain 65,023]

1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

*gulp* Lesson learned elsewhere. Always...ALWAYS cover a run of the Euro. You never know what it's gonna show.

3 minutes ago, CTsnowstorm628 said:

Ok ok ok. I'm back. This one looks interesting. Favoring interior of course, but can't rule out some accumulation even closer to the coast if things break right. Should be a fun few days track upper level features!

Welcome back.