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Long-time lurker in this forum. I'm currently a forecaster at NWS Chicago and got my start in NWS as a SCEP at OKX back in February 2009 and worked there until July 2010. I was born and raised in Coll

We might very well have a HECS on our hands. I’ll wait until 12z tomorrow to sound the alarm, but 00z tonight might be enough to do it.    Isn’t the weather amazing? Many of us including mys

This is bordering on a HECS now

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4 minutes ago, Jake732 said:

So how do u take into account if I get snow or rain from that model?

By analyzing the different levels of the atmosphere. Temperature, winds, vertical velocities & frontogenic profiles for starters. Snow maps are generally not a good tool for forecasters.

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Just now, CCB! said:

By analyzing the different levels of the atmosphere. Temperature, winds, vertical velocities, frontogenic profiles for starters. Snow maps are generally not a tool for forecasters.

:best:

 

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3 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

For me personally this is the biggest euro run since 12z before the 2016 January blizzard

 

at this point in model land, euro could be OTS 200 miles...and id say " meh.... i could see that"

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Where the best initial frontogensis and CCB intersect is where you will find 12- 18 with this.  The UKMET / GEM / RGEM / HRDPS  are in the camp I believe the EURO will end up in.

 

I hate saying anything is trash but the GFS is just not resolving the latent heat release and the explosiveness of this mesoscale feature. I can`t see - 2 at 850 and a  DP of 32 keeping the surface 35 with 1.5 LE falling in 12 hours, the column should cool. 

 

The NAM has me a little spooked because I have seen it excel in here over the last 2 years , so I would like it to not have it chase the convection over Tom`s River instead head east off AC like the UKMET does.

 

Having a warm bias RGEM snow down to me in Colts Neck does bode well for NYC. Most of the times you can identify a system as to what they usually do , ( these like to bend west and stick the 700mb on the coast ) , but there is blocking this time and serious dynamics at play.

 

So I want to lean on the colder solutions and not just because I am nuts. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

 

at this point in model land, euro could be OTS 200 miles...and id say " meh.... i could see that"

Definitely agree and it’s not what it was 2 years ago it still is prob the best model 24 hours out from the heart of the storm

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1 minute ago, Mike1984 said:

Isn’t the Euro fairly useless in this range? Isn’t it for medium range forecasts? 

No, it's quite useful.

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2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the Euro had 18-24 last March and it failed miserably as some other models were showing signs of a different solution

Thanks for reminding us dude!!!!

1 minute ago, Mike1984 said:

Isn’t the Euro fairly useless in this range? Isn’t it for medium range forecasts? 

Actually, it is MOST useful in this range. The Euro is a high res model.

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