Jake732 399 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, CCB! said: Unfortunately (or fortunately), no. So how do u take into account if I get snow or rain from that model? Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 UKMET @ KNYC - 4 @ 850 plus 2 ( should be closer to 0 IMO ) 530 on a N wind with 36mm I think that`s a great spot. Link to post Share on other sites
Allsnow 41,941 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, PB GFI said: UKMET @ KNYC - 4 plus 2 ( should be closer to 0 IMO ) 530 on a N wind with 36mm I think that`s a great spot. Pb! Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, PB GFI said: UKMET @ KNYC - 4 plus 2 ( should be closer to 0 IMO ) 530 on a N wind with 36mm I think that`s a great spot. PB! Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,372 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, PB GFI said: UKMET @ KNYC - 4 @ 850 plus 2 ( should be closer to 0 IMO ) 530 on a N wind with 36mm I think that`s a great spot. @PB GFI! <3 Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Allsnow said: Pb! Just now, 33andrain said: PB! Just now, NJwxguy78 said: @PB GFI! <3 Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, 33andrain said: 13 minutes ago, 33andrain said: 16 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said: 16 minutes ago, 33andrain said: 17 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said: What time is good tonight and who is on? @earthlight? Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,172 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jake732 said: So how do u take into account if I get snow or rain from that model? By analyzing the different levels of the atmosphere. Temperature, winds, vertical velocities & frontogenic profiles for starters. Snow maps are generally not a good tool for forecasters. Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,372 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, CCB! said: By analyzing the different levels of the atmosphere. Temperature, winds, vertical velocities, frontogenic profiles for starters. Snow maps are generally not a tool for forecasters. Link to post Share on other sites
swamplover56 4,913 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 For me personally this is the biggest euro run since 12z before the 2016 January blizzard Link to post Share on other sites
NSFW Weather Guy 10,061 Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: For me personally this is the biggest euro run since 12z before the 2016 January blizzard at this point in model land, euro could be OTS 200 miles...and id say " meh.... i could see that" Link to post Share on other sites
winterwarlock 326 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 the Euro had 18-24 last March and it failed miserably as some other models were showing signs of a different solution Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Where the best initial frontogensis and CCB intersect is where you will find 12- 18 with this. The UKMET / GEM / RGEM / HRDPS are in the camp I believe the EURO will end up in. I hate saying anything is trash but the GFS is just not resolving the latent heat release and the explosiveness of this mesoscale feature. I can`t see - 2 at 850 and a DP of 32 keeping the surface 35 with 1.5 LE falling in 12 hours, the column should cool. The NAM has me a little spooked because I have seen it excel in here over the last 2 years , so I would like it to not have it chase the convection over Tom`s River instead head east off AC like the UKMET does. Having a warm bias RGEM snow down to me in Colts Neck does bode well for NYC. Most of the times you can identify a system as to what they usually do , ( these like to bend west and stick the 700mb on the coast ) , but there is blocking this time and serious dynamics at play. So I want to lean on the colder solutions and not just because I am nuts. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike1984 115 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Isn’t the Euro fairly useless in this range? Isn’t it for medium range forecasts? Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 UMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Link to post Share on other sites
swamplover56 4,913 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NSFW Weather Guy said: at this point in model land, euro could be OTS 200 miles...and id say " meh.... i could see that" Definitely agree and it’s not what it was 2 years ago it still is prob the best model 24 hours out from the heart of the storm Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,172 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Mike1984 said: Isn’t the Euro fairly useless in this range? Isn’t it for medium range forecasts? No, it's quite useful. Link to post Share on other sites
CTsnowstorm628 99 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The amount of liquid with this one is remarkable. Going to be a serious thump for some on the NW side of the H7 low. Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: the Euro had 18-24 last March and it failed miserably as some other models were showing signs of a different solution Thanks for reminding us dude!!!! 1 minute ago, Mike1984 said: Isn’t the Euro fairly useless in this range? Isn’t it for medium range forecasts? Actually, it is MOST useful in this range. The Euro is a high res model. Link to post Share on other sites
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