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The most important part of that GEFS run is the quick ENE turn that nearly all the members take. This allows for the LP to track S of LI. Also, those ensemble member precip type maps are extremely low resolution, so members that rain into NYC with a 985 LP S of LI are wrong.

 

00E90F28-BA12-48A4-8829-0A22C819F11A.gif.3161c4882ddbe3e4e9bed4af55770b8d.gif

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Long-time lurker in this forum. I'm currently a forecaster at NWS Chicago and got my start in NWS as a SCEP at OKX back in February 2009 and worked there until July 2010. I was born and raised in Coll

We might very well have a HECS on our hands. I’ll wait until 12z tomorrow to sound the alarm, but 00z tonight might be enough to do it.    Isn’t the weather amazing? Many of us including mys

This is bordering on a HECS now

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1 minute ago, earthlight said:

Euro looks great at hour 24, clearly going to be more amplified. 

 

 

12z:

image.png.91facb63c8272b3aff4ad08dc2cc9e98.png

 

0z:

image.png.44e9a008502edabb92ec28b99ccdb1ae.png

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1 minute ago, earthlight said:

One thing to note about the ECMWF - despite being more amplified, it refuses to raise the EC heights in a manner similar to the NAM. It's less amplified in that regard

Agreed. One thing that's improved is that the orientation of the trough is trying to push neutral quicker on this run... But yes, the height field is relatively unchanged otherwise.

 

12z:

image.png.ebdd2f34f764d3108d48dbe78f9796e2.png

0z:

image.png.03fe4a357153a356bc68808bc2973fab.png

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I've been on the "I-84 special" train for a while, and fully expect mixing in SE areas, but agree the GEFS is being over analyzed. I think eastern PA into New England should do quite well. No shortage of moisture to work with in classic Miller B fashion...

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Just now, CTsnowstorm628 said:

I've been on the "I-84 special" train for a while, and fully expect mixing in SE areas, but agree the GEFS is being over analyzed. I think eastern PA into New England should do quite well. No shortage of moisture to work with in classic Miller B fashion...

Ed!

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The trough is almost digging for oil this run. Very slight EC height increase as compared to 0z on this run at 45

 

image.png.d7f70232e21211ee51ae1fceb65b52e7.png

 

0z:

image.png.9da945b3543194d705cc07e6ff5c7630.png

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

Agreed. One thing that's improved is that the orientation of the trough is trying to push neutral quicker on this run... But yes, the height field is relatively unchanged otherwise.

 

12z:

image.png.ebdd2f34f764d3108d48dbe78f9796e2.png

0z:

image.png.03fe4a357153a356bc68808bc2973fab.png

 

This change should begin manifesting itself in heights increasing along the East Coast compared to the 00z as the trough tilts negative. If it doesn't, that's a red flag to me that EURO is not handling this correctly. You cannot amplify something upstream without downstream amplification resulting.

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Better PVA into the area for sure, following the earlier 12z suite theme... Nice negatively titled trough - Here we go:

 

image.png.005debba5e710240d67aefb7edf9fd75.png

 

0z:

image.png.3e7817a816570ee9c5af4235d88ccd22.png

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