March 7-8 Redemption threat

[brooklynwx99 18,294]

The most important part of that GEFS run is the quick ENE turn that nearly all the members take. This allows for the LP to track S of LI. Also, those ensemble member precip type maps are extremely low resolution, so members that rain into NYC with a 985 LP S of LI are wrong.

 

[CCB! 35,172]

1 minute ago, earthlight said:

Euro looks great at hour 24, clearly going to be more amplified. 

 

 

12z:

 

0z:

[earthlight 25,424]

One thing to note about the ECMWF - despite being more amplified, it refuses to raise the EC heights in a manner similar to the NAM. It's less amplified in that regard

[Nathan Coram 431]

1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

The GEFS are being over-analyzed. Relax.

Fully agree. I think we all know it’s the GFS suite with its inherent biases.... relax.

[CCB! 35,172]

1 minute ago, earthlight said:

One thing to note about the ECMWF - despite being more amplified, it refuses to raise the EC heights in a manner similar to the NAM. It's less amplified in that regard

Agreed. One thing that's improved is that the orientation of the trough is trying to push neutral quicker on this run... But yes, the height field is relatively unchanged otherwise.

 

12z:

0z:

[33andrain 65,023]

120 online.

[CTsnowstorm628 99]

I've been on the "I-84 special" train for a while, and fully expect mixing in SE areas, but agree the GEFS is being over analyzed. I think eastern PA into New England should do quite well. No shortage of moisture to work with in classic Miller B fashion...

[Allsnow 41,941]

[33andrain 65,023]

Just now, CTsnowstorm628 said:

I've been on the "I-84 special" train for a while, and fully expect mixing in SE areas, but agree the GEFS is being over analyzed. I think eastern PA into New England should do quite well. No shortage of moisture to work with in classic Miller B fashion...

Ed!

[CCB! 35,172]

The trough is almost digging for oil this run. Very slight EC height increase as compared to 0z on this run at 45

 

 

0z:

[Allsnow 41,941]

[rb924119 3,440]

1 minute ago, CCB! said:

Agreed. One thing that's improved is that the orientation of the trough is trying to push neutral quicker on this run... But yes, the height field is relatively unchanged otherwise.

 

12z:

0z:

 

This change should begin manifesting itself in heights increasing along the East Coast compared to the 00z as the trough tilts negative. If it doesn't, that's a red flag to me that EURO is not handling this correctly. You cannot amplify something upstream without downstream amplification resulting.

[CCB! 35,172]

Better PVA into the area for sure, following the earlier 12z suite theme... Nice negatively titled trough - Here we go:

 

 

0z:

[earthlight 25,424]

Bomb developing and it's nicely positioned off the NJ coast...

[Allsnow 41,941]

Welcome to the Party Euro 

[CooL 7,936]

Euro has caved West. 

[33andrain 65,023]

EURO hour 57!!!

[StatenWX 1,806]

I like how the northern SW is more n/s oriented. Looks poised to dive into the trough.

[earthlight 25,424]

CRUSH Job for NJ and NYC incoming

[earthlight 25,424]

Hour 57 is absolutely bananas!!!