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Long-time lurker in this forum. I'm currently a forecaster at NWS Chicago and got my start in NWS as a SCEP at OKX back in February 2009 and worked there until July 2010. I was born and raised in Coll

We might very well have a HECS on our hands. I’ll wait until 12z tomorrow to sound the alarm, but 00z tonight might be enough to do it.    Isn’t the weather amazing? Many of us including mys

This is bordering on a HECS now

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28 minutes ago, DualJet said:

Im on the fence even with the GFS. If this was January I would be thrilled for everyone. Its going to depend on how much BL warmth comes at us from a track like this. Sometimes the models underestimate this and it is March. I know we all want to forget last year, but it does need to be mentioned. 

 

I remain more worried about a dry slot causing the warmth (and poor lift in the DGZ) rather than a BL that is too inherently warm to produce snow in a dynamic situation.

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7 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

I remain more worried about a dry slot causing the warmth (and poor lift in the DGZ) rather than a BL that is too inherently warm to produce snow in a dynamic situation.

 

This is definitely a worry on Long Island. I think most models are showing this at this juncture.

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1 minute ago, rb924119 said:

The changes to the EPS in just 12 hours are laughable in my opinion. That's a HUGE shift for the range we are at lol

 

Half of the members yesterday were W of 72 , so I think most saw that initial shift coming. 

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