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Long-time lurker in this forum. I'm currently a forecaster at NWS Chicago and got my start in NWS as a SCEP at OKX back in February 2009 and worked there until July 2010. I was born and raised in Coll

We might very well have a HECS on our hands. I’ll wait until 12z tomorrow to sound the alarm, but 00z tonight might be enough to do it.    Isn’t the weather amazing? Many of us including mys

This is bordering on a HECS now

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I'm honestly uncertain as to how this will play out yet, but I note the northern ULL is further south this run & that leftover lobe of vorticity is a bit further east again.

 

index.gif.83fc70381245cdbd7d4ea35ef74ca56a.gif

 

 

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

I'm honestly uncertain as to how this will play out yet, but I note the northern ULL is further south this run & that leftover lobe of vorticity is a bit further east again.

 

index.gif.83fc70381245cdbd7d4ea35ef74ca56a.gif

 

 

 

My bets are a tad east

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1 minute ago, earthlight said:

More often than not, it's easy to see the changes that are going to happen pretty early on. That's the case here. There's zero reason for this to come west or stay as west as it was unless something dramatic changes with the overall evolution

 

 

I am noticing and correct me if I’m wrong cause I’m looking on a tiny phone screen, over all the trough seems to be orientating Neutral in line to go neg faster though

 

70D65073-F94A-404D-B005-BA823F816A67.gif

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3 minutes ago, earthlight said:

More often than not, it's easy to see the changes that are going to happen pretty early on. That's the case here. There's zero reason for this to come west or stay as west as it was unless something dramatic changes with the overall evolution

Agreed, it was easy to see the baroclinic zone shifting east with a weaker system early on/EC lower heights. Only thing I was watching was the quicker absorption of the ULL coming out of Canada & how it could influence rapid amplification. But yes, this looks like a correction east as it stands.

index.gif

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1 minute ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

 

 

I am noticing and correct me if I’m wrong cause I’m looking on a tiny phone screen, over all the trough seems to be orientating Neutral in line to go neg faster though

 

70D65073-F94A-404D-B005-BA823F816A67.gif

 I don’t see any tilt changes... in fact the whole thing seems more elongated and heights on the east coast are less amplified 

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