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Winter 2017-2018 -- The Encore


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This just happened.   

I don't mean to interrupt the fantastic teleconnection discussion; but, the N Pac situation to me is classic constructive interference. This in turn adjusts the wave guide to tilt more to the right, s

As long as the 50-50 moat, as I've been calling it, holds firm, the first wave must dampen as it encounters the confluence (to what degree is still uncertain). It is deeply rooted in high theta-e and

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

I am with you on another mid latitude cyclone here , but I disagree in this respect when I see this , I know my source region is Arctic in nature. The air mass this go around will be low level dense , very stable cold air and It would not shock me if it was snowing on the coastal plain in the low to mid 20`s ala April 82.

 

 

 

 

 

ecmwf_dew2m_neng_32  MARCH 13 DAY 8 DPS.png

Agreed Paul.

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This little impulse of energy rotating around the big cyclone could cause some moderate to perhaps heavy brief snow showers in the area tomorrow afternoon/evening.

WX/PT 

Agreed. PB has been indirectly referencing it via maps for a couple of days. I've also noticed it.

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18 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

I almost hope you're right @rb924119. In order to get snow to rain on the coast from this one, with that block, the system will have to be amped up as all get out. The CRAS will take it into Idaho.

 

I don't think getting this thing cranking is going to be a problem, especially at the midlevels. You're going to have a retracting pattern with shortening of wavelengths ongoing with a -NAO/EPO couplet, spiking PNA ridge (as the western energy splits - our storm scoots east and the remainder retracts off the West Coast). This alone is going to allow for consolidation of energy in our system of interest and a rapid organization/sharpening of the mid-level cyclone as it pushes east. The reason why I think we see a coastal hugger scenario is that we no longer have the auspicious MJO forcing nor presence of a true 50/50 low in conjunction with the -NAO to allow heights to remain flatter like our present system did. This should allow heights to respond much more along the East Coast. Also of note is the lack of a substantial -AO/WPO in the face of a neutral to positive SOI, well above normal western Atlantic SSTs, and the bias for warmth to begin fighting as we enter the warm season. While the factors mentioned earlier will provide the cold air, initially for the coast, I think the other factors will have a better hand at influencing the overall track as we have fewer components aiding in suppressing the storm track further south and east. Again, only my opinion.

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