March 20-22 Winter Storm Obs/Short term Models/Discussion - Page 64 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
Frankdp23

March 20-22 Winter Storm Obs/Short term Models/Discussion

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2 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

You should do very well. 10-16. Good luck man and keep us posted. 

 

Thanks, we will see. Temp has crept up a bit and that dry slot is looming offshore, 35 minutes until sun angle decreases!

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0 flakes fallen in Hartford CT even though radar has been showing. Dry air man!

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2 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

I’m noticing an uptick in wind. Anyone else? 

Absolutely calm here 

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1 minute ago, SRebecca said:

@RAllen964 and @Snow seems so, doesnt it? Its fascinating, and intriguing. Far from whining, as its silly to blame humans that the weather is not conforming to the models, I would love to UNDERSTAND why the discrepancy happened. Did new data come in that made the model wrong? Was something not accounted for? Did conditions change and the models did not understand that? Models are only as good as the data they get...if there is information they lack, they will be wrong. And Mother Nature can throw out last minute changes as she pleases. 


This storm to begin with was convoluted and had many moving parts. Each model has its bias, weak points and strengths that, if you know them well enough, you can begin to create your own ideas. (aka the NavGem rule is one since its typically the most progressive). Doesnt always work, but it gives you a good starting point. But it really just goes back to that mathematical equations cannot be 100% correct for something as chaotic as weather. 

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I think its ironic for all the dependence and the highlight on the big 3: Euro, Nam and GFS that the HRR and HRDPS might wind up being the most accurate. NAM is very badly off, projecting 6-10 area wide and shifting east while Im knocking on 4 inches doors and its not even 1130am yet.

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Back to very light fine snow the driveway was starting to slush up a bit again and now it’s melting 

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1 minute ago, swamplover56 said:

Back to very light fine snow the driveway was starting to slush up a bit again and now it’s melting 

In and out of mod snow here. Just not going to sustain rates to keep the pavement covered. Radar is exploding down in south jersey, so after 1pm we should be in a better spot. 

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3 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Really ripping here now! Great snow growth. Too bad we're going to enter a dry slot soon.

Haha. I didnt even see this post first

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5 minutes ago, Gianni said:

mostly from yesterday...starting to pick up again

IMG_0360.JPG

The big winner.

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Wicked dry up here, sucking subsidence, sun actually came out ? lmao, gonna bust on the fringe places like 84, thought we could Saturate up here a bit better than reality 

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13 minutes ago, WxInTheBronx said:

5ab276b2f20f6.png

5ab276dc32785.png

that stuff to the east of LI is likely rain. thats why the dBZ is so high. 

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

In and out of mod snow here. Just not going to sustain rates to keep the pavement covered. Radar is exploding down in south jersey, so after 1pm we should be in a better spot. 

I’ve been through many nor’easter and I agree I’m loving the way the radar looks to the south trying to stay very patient 

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29 minutes ago, BMC10 said:

Bands are rotating off the ocean. It will fill in and get better buddy. I promise. Be patient. 

Waiting for past 3 hours 

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