[Global] Teleconnections: A Technical Discussion - Page 28 - 33andrain Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
Snowy Hibbo

[Global] Teleconnections: A Technical Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

But maybe normal is not where we want to be. Let me explain.

 

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We are in a basinwide event, with warm anomalies from Cape York to Columbia. I can agree that it has weakened in past week or so. There is also a +IOD and relatively warm North Pacific worth noting. 

 

I think (hypothesise) that the basinwide nature of this particular Niño, has assisted the westerly winds to intensify. It is known that the MJO is associated with westerly wind bursts , and that warmer SSTs assist the passing of the MJO within the Phase 6-7-8-1 regions.

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As you can see in the past 2-3 months, there has been plenty of westerly activity in The Pacific Ocean. Early October MJO event, late Oct Kelvin wave, Late Nov MJO wave and now the current MJO wave.

 

To me, the enhanced convection in the Pacific region, associated with a complete end to end warm SST anomaly, has assisted the MJO gain strength (and is partly the reason why the MJO will get so strong in Phase 7 in the first week of January, along with the BDC and other factors).

 

This has all allowed the AAM to become with such a Niño like background state, without the blessing of SST thresholds. Personally I think the way we observe Niños needs to change, because of this dynamic difference between the ocean and atmosphere. I think it is pretty out of sync, but it has always been pretty dynamic. Even you add AGW and Solar factors into the mix, there is still plenty of room for the climate and oceans to diverge.

 

Personally apart from this past two weeks, the trade winds haven't been awfully active, which is why we have been in a +AAM state for so long, and why we are seeing us getting close to -AAM right now. I imagine the warmth will begin to grow again, as the WWB associated with the MJO crosses into the Pacific. So I think fears that a Niño would disintegrate are a bit premature in my opinion, but each to their own.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes I do tend to agree with that, my point was that in the past AAM, QBO, MJO and other teleconnections behave totally differently to what we are currently seeing. And I am thinking its the warmth left over form 2015, and extra water vapour from 2015 that is the issue. 

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2 minutes ago, Tee47 said:

Yes I do tend to agree with that, my point was that in the past AAM, QBO, MJO and other teleconnections behave totally differently to what we are currently seeing. And I am thinking its the warmth left over form 2015, and extra water vapour from 2015 that is the issue. 

I wouldn't say they are. The GSDM is still working towards what we expect. And the +QBO descending, we are seeing a SSW as the data correlates with one, given a +QBO descendment.

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2 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

I wouldn't say they are. The GSDM is still working towards what we expect. And the +QBO descending, we are seeing a SSW as the data correlates with one, given a +QBO descendment.

 

In Australia we are setting up for something totally different, which was my point, it's playing out differently all over the globe IMO.

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Just now, Tee47 said:

 

In Australia we are setting up for something totally different, which was my point, it's playing out differently all over the globe IMO.

Fair enough, though the limited data I have seen, the QBO means little to Australian snowfall, therefore SE Australia weather patterns. Still working on how the GWO affects Australia, here's part of what I have done on the topic.

 

I think you are mainly talking Niño(?), which brings me to my point that the Niño is completely different to what is considered a canonical Niño (although it has happened before). With warmer SSTs near the Cape York Peninisula and coming down the GBR, the impacts of the Niño will of course not be like what is normally considered for a canonical Niño in Australia. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Fair enough, though the limited data I have seen, the QBO means little to Australian snowfall, therefore SE Australia weather patterns. Still working on how the GWO affects Australia, here's part of what I have done on the topic.

 

I think you are mainly talking Niño(?), which brings me to my point that the Niño is completely different to what is considered a canonical Niño (although it has happened before). With warmer SSTs near the Cape York Peninisula and coming down the GBR, the impacts of the Niño will of course not be like what is normally considered for a canonical Niño in Australia. 

Yep thats correct, and what I was pointing out. Interesting times.

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@Bring Back 1962-63 

Where can I access the MT charts that you provided? Are they part of a subscription service or are they free access? Thanks for the writeup!

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3 hours ago, Nchaboy said:

THaks for the extensive write up David!! 

BRAVO, BB 62-63!!!! LOL I actually understood most of this write-up, which is cool, but now my brain is in overdrive, so I need to find some duct tape or it may explode...LOL

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   Just my 2 cents, but after what I have seen from the overnight and this mornings upper-air guidance I don't see a legit pattern flip with the needed amplitude occurring until we get a solid negative run in the WPO and based off of what I'm seeing in the WPO, the consensus time period for this to potentially occur is around January 13th-16th. I don't expect to see upper-air guidance to start mirroring this change until around Jan 10th. Could the WPO be pointing towards when we see the impact of the PV split?? 

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