Teleconnections: A Technical Discussion - Page 36 - Teleconnections, Atmosphere, Arctic, Climate Change - 33andrain Jump to content
Snowy Hibbo

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1 hour ago, amugs said:

Mods - for some reason I cant post in the Teleconnections thread so i am putting this tweets here - I am looking for an explanation to this map and if anyone has any exerptise in what they are saying. i know that the cycles of teh sun, planetary alignments and our spaceship we call earth are all interconnected to these cycles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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As an addition to the above, find below a few extra graphics and plots. This seems to tie in nicely and is seemingly a good example of how the AAM and 500mb anoms can clearly be connected with regards to either +AAM through the mid-lats, say 40-60N, as what occurred during the first half of March or more. This N Hem pattern is clearly a distinctly +NAO regime too and, as I highlighted yesterday, brought a particularly unsettled and disturbed period of weather to the British Isles. The opposite has seemingly been occurring since early April mind, with -AAM through a similar latitude range, but clearly note the completely different N Hem pattern and especially so across the N Atlantic domain.  This has, essentially meant that the first half of March compared with the first half of April, for the UK and NW Europe are completely opposite and this seems to be a superb example and connection to me.

 

I think the main question of interest, which no doubt has a very complicated answer is; how can one predict the likely evolution of the AAM, whether +ve or -ve looking forward, especially so within than 40-60N latitude range?...As we found out this winter mind, this link isn't always clear cut and can vary, but still.

 

image.png.c77ece517e8aacc1b6f72d4b793dfd71.png

image.png.b0386ee73e7fcd8a897859de26da7949.png

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21 hours ago, Singularity said:

Hi Matt, some good observations there and well constructed :).

 

True what you say regarding the AAM changes and increased westerly flow across the N Atlantic next week - but now, the falling phase is starting to look too brief for the Atlantic trough to push right across to the UK longitudes (thankfully, I’d you prefer it warm) before AAM cycles back around and the ridge builds back in.

 

 

With the Pacific El Niño event underway, even though it’s weak, its reasonable to assume further positive AAM cycles going forward. The main uncertainty is the time spent in each phase, as the case for next week has shown.

 

Got to rush off now - I’ll see if I can find time to expand on this later.

 

When you say "further positive AAM cycles" I presume you mean through the sub-tropical regions, as we have had over the last couple of weeks, so roughly 10N to 30N, as opposed to +ve AAM regimes like back in early March at more northern lats?

 

If this is what you're implying then I can see how the -ve AAM regime may well continue then at more northern latitudes as per the last couple of weeks, meaning that further blocking episodes are likely. I would imagine with the breakdown of the strat vortex too over the next few days this will only reinforce the lack of any W'ly momentum at more northern latitudes; Clearly May is often the driest month of the year across the UK, on average, for a reason(s), this certainly being one each year no doubt.

 

The latest GWO plot seems to have done just that, from a few days ago it has suddenly 'jumped' back around to phase 5 so a relatively high/+AAM state still which ties in with what you mention as well...

 

image.png.a7fe1c4a0c2268f8fcd4223be7aecf92.png

 

The charts are now 72hrs old, so hopefully should update today, but even back on the 15th the relative AAM tendency has quickly bounced back up, perhaps related to some mountain torque activity. Again, tying this in with what you've mentioned, could this well be the sign that +AAM will return through the sub-tropical regions, while more northern lats maintain more of a -ve regime. Apologies for the crude colouring (on the right image) but perhaps the prediction then, in terms of a total AAM through the next week would be something like below, this mirroring or at least being similar to that of the first half of April as we approach late April and early May. The end result, or prediction, is a continued risk or a greater propensity for blocking regimes within the N Atlantic/N Europe domain (?)

 

image.png.db10eaa6d3b82d6a6247985120b5e5aa.png

 

Regards, Matt.

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