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Teleconnections: Advanced Meteorological Discussion


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Welcome to the Teleconnections thread!

Check out some of the other driver threads and resources here:

Arctic thread

Stratosphere thread

Weather research portal

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Science is all about advancement, usually due to anomalies that emerge spontaneously in any given dataset. Most scientific advancement occurs not as a function of status quo, but because something aty

---The extirpation of the second half December as a paradoxical consequence of aberrant stratospheric perturbation---   1. My winter outlook included the hypothesis that a technical stratosp

The cyclonic energies associated with the stratospheric polar vortex split, propagating southwestward into SE Canada, are becoming evident in the troposphere. The principal reason why we're seeing mod

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8 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

It has been interesting to watch guidance trend a bit back to the base state we saw earlier in the winter months. The higher latitudes have reshuffled a bit and we are losing support for +anom heights in the mid level higher latitude atlantic domain. At the same time we are seeing a bit of a retrogression with anomalous ridging developing in the Pacific once again.

 

This will serve to dislodge very anomalous cold southward into Canada and the Northern 1/3 - but the longevity of it becomes the most interesting thing to me. It seems to me there are *early* signals for big time warmth toward the end of April and possibly even early May with the overall progression of tropical forcing/convection and higher latitude pattern. Some of the details are still yet to be determined, but we will obviously discuss at length here in this thread as we move forward!

Yes, I can certainly agree with all of that. Glad to see you here @earthlight

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I'd say I at least know the general concepts and the causes/effects of most of these variable teleconnections except Angular Momentum and Frictional/Mountain Torque. Could someone kindly direct me to a place to read up on these concepts?

Also, to any of the more knowledgeable people here, with the oncoming solar minimum from cycle 24, what are the potential effects to the global teleconnections?

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4 minutes ago, Newman said:

I'd say I at least know the general concepts and the causes/effects of most of these variable teleconnections except Angular Momentum and Frictional/Mountain Torque. Could someone kindly direct me to a place to read up on these concepts?

Also, to any of the more knowledgeable people here, with the oncoming solar minimum from cycle 24, what are the potential effects to the global teleconnections?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2608%3AMTGFTA>2.0.CO%3B2

This is the formal paper from Klaus Weickmann, who was one of the leaders in early GWO research.

 

Basically Frictional Torque is the tropical component, and the mountain torque is the extratropical component, togther they form the AAM. The MJO can also be used to indicate the AAM, with Phases 5-8 more associated with positive AAM and Phases 1-4 with negative AAM. But this isn't always the case, so you have to look at the torques as well.

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@Snowy Hibbo fascinating article - many of these teleconnections are not complex - but they are not completely understood in the hobbyist community.

 

Cheers to this thread, and hoping we can all learn a bit. We realize in some places, these connections have been discussed at great length.  Thanks for bringing that to 33. Looking forward to growth and learning in our international group!

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@Tamara, @Bring Back 1962-63, fantastic, informative posts - we are lucky to have you here and grateful to @Snowy Hibbo for inviting you!

 

Off to work myself but I will read carefully and thoroughly this evening (US time). Just wanted to extend a warm welcome before the sun sets on your side of the globe. 

 

 

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  • 33andrain changed the title to Teleconnections: A More Technical Discussion
40 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

@Isotherm! Excited to see your thoughts in our new “teleconnections” thread going forward!!

 

6 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Thank you Patrick and Geoff - appreciate it! Catching up a bit with various things after that month long of tracking, but I will definitely dive into the thread with some comments eventually.

 

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Guys - sorry to say the website hosting the stratosphere 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa charts used in my post (above) is having technical problems at the moment, so the charts currently aren't displaying. Hopefully they'll be back soon as they show the coupling between strat and trop and show how the split vortex continues to impact. In the meantime Michael Ventrice has just tweeted this chart which draws the same conclusion for start of April.

 

 

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