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Snowy Hibbo

Teleconnections: Advanced Meteorological Discussion

Snowy Hibbo

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On 12/26/2018 at 2:13 PM, dmillz25 said:

@earthlight 2 Questions on wave breaking. How do you know where and how the wave breaking occurs? Is this the cause of the retrogression of the ridge?

@earthlight bump

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31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@Isotherm we appreciate everything you bring too 33. You are a incredible forecaster with amazing talent in the long range. Thank you again. It’s disrespectful to see others calling you out on other forums. This will never happen here, i promise you the that. 

People are going after Isotherm at other forums?? People need to get a life 

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@Isotherm the most impressive part of your post was the use of the term pleiotropic. I had to google that one, but it was used perfectly. Thank you for helping us all to expand our limited vocabulary. 

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I think we will have a fully declared Nino by early Feb that'll meet both NOAA's and BOMM's standards(which I believe will last though next Winter season). I base this of course on the forecasted MJO(my opinion going inbetween Euro & GEFS leaning more towards GEFSish in amplitude and direction eventually through phases 6-7-8-1) and the GWO/AMM expected to take off!

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Does the SOI values increasing have a bad impact on the upcoming pattern change? Don’t we need a negative SOI  for colder weather? 

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54 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Great post, Zac.

 

As further support for my argument posed on the last page re: paradoxical result of increased strat perturbation - note the following.

 

Using z70 temperatures 25N-25S as a proxy, they're approaching record lows now. Very cold temperatures in the lower strat/upper troposphere of the tropics will significantly enhance the tropical convection signal, i.e., MJO, which in turn, modulated our sensible weather such that numerous cutters occured/occurring in late December.

 

70mb2525.png

I had a question. If it's not too complicated for a layperson to understand, what is the reason that a colder tropical stratosphere enhances tropical convection? I would have thought a warmer atmosphere would mean more convection in the tropics, since tropical systems/thunderstorms require warm water.  Thanks!

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And I do like how this is quite a carbon copy of what is going on at the moment. Notice the high/low over Western/Eastern Europe.

 

IMG_6050.PNG

Look at all those anti-cyclones and cyclones together. North Pacific is a great example in this chart. Also around South America's tip.

 

and look at the -SAM and -NAM both in symphony.

This is what a somewhat -AAM can look like, there's certainly places where it can get more negative.

Note the +EAMT (endless as observed from Maisello).

 

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On 12/28/2018 at 1:39 PM, Weathergeek said:

I think we will have a fully declared Nino by early Feb that'll meet both NOAA's and BOMM's standards(which I believe will last though next Winter season). I base this of course on the forecasted MJO(my opinion going inbetween Euro & GEFS leaning more towards GEFSish in amplitude and direction eventually through phases 6-7-8-1) and the GWO/AMM expected to take off!

 

I cant see it, an El Nino has never been declared in January, and the SOI strength atm is enough to tell you that you can use all of the tools in the cupboard, none of them make sense right now. The QBO reversal, IMO, in February 2016 was the beginning of a very different weather period, what normally happens with La Nina and El Nino events is totally off in different places, and around the whole globe as well. When I look at the pressure charts above, massive alarm bells go off, especially at the Poles, as does the strength of the MJO at the moment. There is no way this will change whilst trade winds are strengthening as they have been, and if the ITCZ makes its way into the Indian Ocean then I think we ware going to see an abrupt shift into a La Nina at the end of 2019. To me the warming in the Pacific has 1 more month, the Westerlies have not progressed past Nino 4 in the last 3 months, and as such the SOI is now 4.50 for the 90 day average. That rules the BOM out, and should rule NOAA out too, and in turn, won't allow the Pacific to continue warming, and cooling is about to commence.

 

JB is right, extra water vapour is not allowing anything to set up, we will need a big and strong event either way to fix it, right now we have a climate that is out of sync. All fo the indicators on this thread show which way we should be going, yet it can't get it done, and the subsurface is now rapidly losing heat as the trades churn through the warm water. It's a great time to be alive, the next year or two will be extremely interesting to see if we can get the weather patterns back to some sort of normal, because as it stands now, we could not be any further away from normal.

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You can see the euro now is not making that left turn into cod anymore. 

4C689D12-D0F5-4FA8-A71A-C3DF06E56BB2.gif

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You can see the euro now is not making that left turn into cod anymore. 

4C689D12-D0F5-4FA8-A71A-C3DF06E56BB2.gif

Do we want it in the cod? Just seems to be stuck in 5 right?

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