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33andrain

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Very nice forecast. I for one know nothing about Hurricanes, but I'm hoping I'll learn a bunch while observing from a distance, especially with all of you excellent mets & enthusiasts

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Chris

michael

tony 

william?? 

Besides tony this list is pretty average

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Relating to this list by CSU, 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. With an ace of 130. From this early as a forecast, it's a high number which does resemble another active season. Really good prediction with almost being exact with CSU's April forecast.

 

With the weakening La Nina it does limit the hurricanes, but barely. I will say this, 2005's hurricane season had a weak la nina, and so did 2016-2017. I think we will see an uptick in storms in this next forecast. 

 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/04/2018-04.pdf link to CSU's forecast with more explanation.

 

Nice forecast Rob!

 

Garrett

Twitter: WeatherGarrett

twitter.com/weathergarrett

On 4/4/2018 at 11:55 AM, Rob Lightbown said:

I just posted my outlook for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season on the Crown Weather website.  Overall, I think we're looking at a near average season as the ENSO phase moves into either warm-neutral or a weak El Nino.  Also, it would not surprise me at all to see the formation of a western Atlantic tropical cyclone during May or June this year.  

My "numbers" are 14 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3 of those of hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.  Am looking at an ACE this year of about 100.  

One thing I am actually kind of concerned about is for either a significant threat or a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the Carolina, Mid-Atlantic or southern New England coast this season.  Analog data for the past several months points to a significant threat to the area from North Carolina to southern New England.  

 

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33 minutes ago, Rob Lightbown said:

Thanks Garrett!!


Some other bullet points from my forecast include: 

- May/early June western Atlantic tropical development is definitely possible. 
- Warm neutral ENSO or even a weak El Nino development late in the season. 
- Two areas of concern this season for a direct impact from a TS/Hurricane - #1 area from NC to southern New England.  #2 area is the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. 
- Analog years I used as part of my forecast are: 1956, 1960, 1996, 2003, 2006 and 2011.  I attached a map that includes all of the Atlantic Basin TS/Hurricane activity during those analog years. 

 Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://crownweather.com


 

 

 

 

 

 

Capture.PNG

I can also see the La Nina weakening in the global water temperature anomaly. Waters are starting to get a bit warmer than normal, which I can also see that it could be a neutral ENSO. Tracks on the hurricanes are going to be where the Bermuda High is and where it will take the storms. If it's closer to mainland US it could lead to more serious impacts, or maybe out to sea. These previous tracks help a lot, especially with Irma when it was a Donna track on the same day. 

 

Garrett

Twitter: WeatherGarrett

twitter.com/weathergarrett

nina.png

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29 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Hurricane Tony ?  That's gona bust. 

 

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Hurricanes are impressive. I'm. not for the damage they do just marvel at the shear strength. I couldn't even begin to imagine what the people of Barbuda went through with 185mph sustained. I'm in RI and when we had the wind storm in early March winds were sustained at close to 60mph gusts close to hurricane force. Leaving work ot took 2 guy's to push the door open. Trees down everywhere. Even a strong cat one would be devastating up here in Southern New England.  

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11 hours ago, Vinny Findley said:

Hurricanes are impressive. I'm. not for the damage they do just marvel at the shear strength. I couldn't even begin to imagine what the people of Barbuda went through with 185mph sustained. I'm in RI and when we had the wind storm in early March winds were sustained at close to 60mph gusts close to hurricane force. Leaving work ot took 2 guy's to push the door open. Trees down everywhere. Even a strong cat one would be devastating up here in Southern New England.  

Your in close to the best location in the northeast for experiencing true hurricane conditions. Just far enough east to get into the rfq of non land effected storms. I’d imagine your area had cat3 winds in 38. 

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On 4/11/2018 at 7:00 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your in close to the best location in the northeast for experiencing true hurricane conditions. Just far enough east to get into the rfq of non land effected storms. I’d imagine your area had cat3 winds in 38. 

I was in Hurricane Irma in Naples, which I had to deal with cleaning up for many.. many days. Being in the rfq just by a half mile or less it was insane! Dealing with long lasting winds and rainfall caused major flooding and uprooting in trees. I can say for myself if this were happen once again I would be more aware for cleaning up, it would also be quicker to clean up the damage from the hurricane. I could also say that the flooding would be a big factor in trying to clean up storm damage, since it would damage the land.

My area has a lot of trees which would has factored the long work in cleaning up storm damage, but if another storm like Irma were to happen again, our winds would have been calmer. 144 MPH at the airport, 55 MPH at my place. To make things better, the eye was filling in and the winds were calm. Hurricane season is right around the corner, and Florida is ready :)

 

Garrett

Twitter: Twitter.com/weathergarrett

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On ‎4‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 11:17 AM, WeatherGarrett said:

I was in Hurricane Irma in Naples, which I had to deal with cleaning up for many.. many days. Being in the rfq just by a half mile or less it was insane! Dealing with long lasting winds and rainfall caused major flooding and uprooting in trees. I can say for myself if this were happen once again I would be more aware for cleaning up, it would also be quicker to clean up the damage from the hurricane. I could also say that the flooding would be a big factor in trying to clean up storm damage, since it would damage the land.

My area has a lot of trees which would has factored the long work in cleaning up storm damage, but if another storm like Irma were to happen again, our winds would have been calmer. 144 MPH at the airport, 55 MPH at my place. To make things better, the eye was filling in and the winds were calm. Hurricane season is right around the corner, and Florida is ready :)

 

Garrett

Twitter: Twitter.com/weathergarrett

Welcome the 33! Saw that you were from Naples! I'm from Maine but my heart is in SWFLA. My folks live in FMB and hopefully I'll be down there with then in a few years :) We were down there last week and went down 41 to the Keys and the damage from Irma was not visible until we got into your area. ( FMB looked like nothing ever happened) You could see parts along the highway where trees were damaged. But my heart broke when we got passed Key Largo. Key Largo had damage too but the smaller Keys were a mess. The Key where the Key Deer were that landscape was stripped of everything and Sugarloaf Key stuck in my head too. The mangroves were still filled with boats and debris and we passed a lot of boats along Rt 1 that were unclaimed and beyond repair. The folks that lived in park model homes and the houses that were not newer construction were destroyed. The debris piles of those homes are still there to this day. Another chilling reminder of what happened that day are the red circles with an X through them for identification of the houses and boats being searched. But there were signs of rebuilding and the folks we talked to in Key West about it were more determined to stay and rebuild their little islands (blue tarped roofs and all)! The Inn Keeper at the place we stayed was telling us how the island wrapped the famous roosters wings in newspaper and put them in their cars to save them and Hemmingways House caretakers took shelter in a room with all the cats too. we talked to him for almost 2 hours about that day.   Looking forward to our next trip there to see the rebirth of The Keys! What an amazing community of people and there was no way a hurricane was going to chase some there away! 

 

And hats off to @Jack Sillin who set me up with every surge monitoring station up the Calloosahtchee (sp) River. My folks were in the extreme surge zone and the marina their boat was in was too. THANK GOD for low tide that day or my trip there would have been a rebuilding one not one out on the boat and floating in their pool. And to picture FMB pier with no water under it was something too. 

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15, 8, 4. Anywhere on the east coast will have to watch them. Early storms in May/June are likely but the more intense hurricanes are more likely later in the season. 

WX/PT

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4 hours ago, SebagoWx said:

Welcome the 33! Saw that you were from Naples! I'm from Maine but my heart is in SWFLA. My folks live in FMB and hopefully I'll be down there with then in a few years :) We were down there last week and went down 41 to the Keys and the damage from Irma was not visible until we got into your area. ( FMB looked like nothing ever happened) You could see parts along the highway where trees were damaged. But my heart broke when we got passed Key Largo. Key Largo had damage too but the smaller Keys were a mess. The Key where the Key Deer were that landscape was stripped of everything and Sugarloaf Key stuck in my head too. The mangroves were still filled with boats and debris and we passed a lot of boats along Rt 1 that were unclaimed and beyond repair. The folks that lived in park model homes and the houses that were not newer construction were destroyed. The debris piles of those homes are still there to this day. Another chilling reminder of what happened that day are the red circles with an X through them for identification of the houses and boats being searched. But there were signs of rebuilding and the folks we talked to in Key West about it were more determined to stay and rebuild their little islands (blue tarped roofs and all)! The Inn Keeper at the place we stayed was telling us how the island wrapped the famous roosters wings in newspaper and put them in their cars to save them and Hemmingways House caretakers took shelter in a room with all the cats too. we talked to him for almost 2 hours about that day.   Looking forward to our next trip there to see the rebirth of The Keys! What an amazing community of people and there was no way a hurricane was going to chase some there away! 

 

And hats off to @Jack Sillin who set me up with every surge monitoring station up the Calloosahtchee (sp) River. My folks were in the extreme surge zone and the marina their boat was in was too. THANK GOD for low tide that day or my trip there would have been a rebuilding one not one out on the boat and floating in their pool. And to picture FMB pier with no water under it was something too. 

Incredible, I was unable to see any damage from FMB because of a loss of power and no service. I can only image what would have happened if Irma had moved more the east, and more to the west.

When Irma was in the Atlantic, I was telling  my family to get ready that this storm is not going to be playing around. So we got the shutters up and then got ready. Then they asked if we should evacuate. In my mind I was thinking yes, because of how models have shifted more west in a short amount of time. But due to rethinking, I said no because of

1) We would lose a lot of gas

2) We would have nowhere to go

3) We could be stuck in the storm because of traffic (Contraflow wasn’t allowed)

By staying I knew there would be a lot of damage.

When I saw that the eye had passed through I looked outside and couldn’t say a word. The amount of flooding, the amount of damage, damage to homes.

From being in an area with a lot of trees, the winds weren’t as strong as what the western coast of Naples got. If it weren’t for the trees, there would be more damage then ever.

Here are some images from Irma that could help.

Image 1: Data from the eye

Image 2: The eye

Image 3: Eyewall

Image 4: EWW message

Image 5: 40 MPH wind with pressure (Highest wind: 55)

Image 6: Damage

 

Garrett

Twitter: WeatherGarrett

 

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1C7F2FB7-69BA-4F56-A514-01C2A73A21FC.jpeg

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analogs I've looked at have Florida and Cape Code in the cross hairs...there could be the least amount of storms ever but the only one that develops eyeballs your back yard...then it's a good season...

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18 minutes ago, WeatherGarrett said:

Incredible, I was unable to see any damage from FMB because of a loss of power and no service. I can only image what would have happened if Irma had moved more the east, and more to the west.

When Irma was in the Atlantic, I was telling  my family to get ready that this storm is not going to be playing around. So we got the shutters up and then got ready. Then they asked if we should evacuate. In my mind I was thinking yes, because of how models have shifted more west in a short amount of time. But due to rethinking, I said no because of

1) We would lose a lot of gas

2) We would have nowhere to go

3) We could be stuck in the storm because of traffic (Contraflow wasn’t allowed)

By staying I knew there would be a lot of damage.

When I saw that the eye had passed through I looked outside and couldn’t say a word. The amount of flooding, the amount of damage, damage to homes.

From being in an area with a lot of trees, the winds weren’t as strong as what the western coast of Naples got. If it weren’t for the trees, there would be more damage then ever.

Here are some images from Irma that could help.

Image 1: Data from the eye

Image 2: The eye

Image 3: Eyewall

Image 4: EWW message

Image 5: 40 MPH wind with pressure (Highest wind: 55)

Image 6: Damage

 

Garrett

Twitter: WeatherGarrett

 

770B4CB0-1FB9-4A7E-8692-209A96B027FB.jpeg

B7C209B2-D3B9-4E1D-A780-C0A780B07CD9.jpeg

2E11B058-7984-4FB0-B019-4E4A36CE2337.jpeg

4E9FD9C9-105D-4BFC-A746-F31C2E212B72.png

D958DE1E-49F2-4F5F-9A11-7284AF1121C8.jpeg

1C7F2FB7-69BA-4F56-A514-01C2A73A21FC.jpeg

Yea, it was surreal watching the reports from my place here in the NE. Knowing places that I loved were being destroyed or changed forever. The Naples Botanical Garden (thank the great effort of their staff and the staff of the Missouri Botanical Gardens who was on stand by to restore the grounds) was one of them. Even more surreal going from areas that were not even touched to total destruction of others. The West coast got lucky that's for sure. Unlike Charlie that split North Captiva Island in half. That year we drove through Port Charlotte 6 months after and the huge light poles were still snapped and the damage was severe even on the Island Of FMB. The best thing for all of you is the warm weather and the way that things grow there. They grow fast and the scars of the landscape heal fast. 

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4 minutes ago, SebagoWx said:

Yea, it was surreal watching the reports from my place here in the NE. Knowing places that I loved were being destroyed or changed forever. The Naples Botanical Garden (thank the great effort of their staff and the staff of the Missouri Botanical Gardens who was on stand by to restore the grounds) was one of them. Even more surreal going from areas that were not even touched to total destruction of others. The West coast got lucky that's for sure. Unlike Charlie that split North Captiva Island in half. That year we drove through Port Charlotte 6 months after and the huge light poles were still snapped and the damage was severe even on the Island Of FMB. The best thing for all of you is the warm weather and the way that things grow there. They grow fast and the scars of the landscape heal fast. 

About 2-3 days after the storm, we were cleaning up (which was going well) a training thunderstorm caused 2-3” of rain where I was and slowed the cleanup. From the 90 degree days, working to cleanup was terrible. I hope I will never experience a storm like Irma again.

 

Garrett

Twitter: WeatherGarrett

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