2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Page 2 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
33andrain

Message added by 33andrain

Recommended Posts

Just now, WeatherGarrett said:

About 2-3 days after the storm, we were cleaning up (which was going well) a training thunderstorm caused 2-3” of rain where I was and slowed the cleanup. From the 90 degree days, working to cleanup was terrible. I hope I will never experience a storm like Irma again.

 

Garrett

Twitter: WeatherGarrett

Yea. I hope that was a once in a 70 year storm. When we finally make the move I don't mind the thunderstorms but a cane is a whole different thing. 

 

We had a huge wind storm here around Halloween and we were without power here for almost a week. Blessed it never happened like that in the winter. Being cold without power sucks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SebagoWx said:

Yea. I hope that was a once in a 70 year storm. When we finally make the move I don't mind the thunderstorms but a cane is a whole different thing. 

 

We had a huge wind storm here around Halloween and we were without power here for almost a week. Blessed it never happened like that in the winter. Being cold without power sucks. 

Sadly losing power for 2 weeks meant we had to spend the time in the heat without air conditioning. Again, hope this doesn’t happen again.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/29/2018 at 11:13 PM, uncle w said:

analogs I've looked at have Florida and Cape Code in the cross hairs...there could be the least amount of storms ever but the only one that develops eyeballs your back yard...then it's a good season...

1914.gif

 

@uncle w Which analog years are you favoring?  I think there will be a neutral/borderline weak El Nino but eastern Pacific (Nino 1.2) will remain cooler, thus a Modoki-type Nino.  Best analogs I can come up with are 1962, 1966, 1968, 1980, 1985, 1989, 2002

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z gfs still shows the system. Several runs in a row.

FB_IMG_1525974451365.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

12z gfs still shows the system. Several runs in a row.

FB_IMG_1525974451365.jpg

In the works of the GFS, they just want to torture Floridians with their scary 300+ hour 'prediction.' In reality this 'storm' the GFS is showing, is not going to be happening any time soon. Plus I would not be seeing any storm impacting Florida within the next month or 2.. well that's if a storm develops and tracks somewhere else. Even though the GFS is consistent with a storm this strong, it does show that the GFS is giving us signs that a storm could be developing soon; or nothing happens. 

As we usually say during this time of the year.. Tis' the season!!!

 

Garrett

Twitter: twitter.com/weathergarrett

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, CCB! said:

 

Another model of the GFS, I like how they said to improve their hurricane forecasting. When instead what is happening is the newer model is pretty much the same thing. Oh the beauty of GFS!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, WeatherGarrett said:

Another model of the GFS, I like how they said to improve their hurricane forecasting. When instead what is happening is the newer model is pretty much the same thing. Oh the beauty of GFS!

 

But this development is actually quite believable, and I am personally expecting it. It fits the pattern/drivers and their evolution(s).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/13/2018 at 8:19 AM, Yaakov said:

I agree with everything you wrote.  There are several factors that do favor higher than climo chances of TC formation in the W. Caribbean from about May 20 onward til the end of the month.  First is the persistent westerly wind anomalies around 10N latitude extending from the eastern Pacific into the sw Caribbean.  This along with anomalous easterlies around the stronger than normal SW Atlantic high increases low-level convergence in the W. Caribbean. 

 

Also the 200 mb anticyclone is forecast to lift well north of its climatological position for this time of year, reaching the nw Caribbean by around day 9-10.  This trend, along with an anomalous north-south trough extending from the central GOM toward the Yucatan, would strongly reduce shear in the w. Caribbean.  

 

Finally, the band of above normal heights extending from the Great Lakes to near/north of Bermuda teleconnects to lowering heights/pressures to the south.  

 

 

GEFS 6-10 Z500.png

GEFS 200 mb.png

GEFS 850 hovmoller.png

GEFS MSLP anom.png

 

Thank you for following up with this!!!! It helps to demonstrate some of the many points that illustrate this potential very well!! Usually I try to do videos that go through my entire thought process, but I've been so busy a post here and there is all I've been able to muster. And, as a bit of an enthusiastic observation: Our horse(s) is are in the race as it stands now, as every major global model appears to be supporting development in our region and time period of interest :D now we just gotta see if they can hold onto it ahaha again, based on the pattern, I see no reason why they shouldn't. Gonna be an interesting week!!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Everyone. Over in the 'Teleconnections' thread I've taken a high level look at the various teleconnections that impact hurricane activity and what state or phase forecasts are suggesting they will be in over the coming season. I've welcomed comments and discussion over there, but there's no intention of competing with this thread, so I'm happy to discuss any aspects over here. Many thanks.

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tweet from Philip Klotzbach showing that the multiple model average forecast for ENSO conditions supports a "warm neutral" phase during the peak of the upcoming hurricane season. But it's interesting to see the variations, with some models more bullish about a switch to El Nino conditions.

ENSO tweet Model Predictions at May2018.jpg

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/997530853294080001

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm starting to see some pretty stout resemblances to Harvey from last year with the development of our upcoming tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Not to the same strength, but the stagnation and duration; very similar evolution showing up here from what I can recall of last year and only at quick glances of modeling, but maybe somebody can confirm or dismiss this observation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, rb924119 said:

I'm starting to see some pretty stout resemblances to Harvey from last year with the development of our upcoming tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Not to the same strength, but the stagnation and duration; very similar evolution showing up here from what I can recall of last year and only at quick glances of modeling, but maybe somebody can confirm or dismiss this observation.

My assessment of the upper pattern in the 6-10 day period is that the northern jet is displaced north of usual, with a blocking ridge centered near the Northern Plains and another anomalously strong ridge between the SE US coast and Bermuda.  This creates a very weak steering flow, and does favor whatever tropical system that forms in the Gulf moving very slowly or even stalling.  

 

The slow westerly drift near LA shown by the European operational run (supported by a decent number of ens members) would be a near worst-case scenario for New Orleans area in terms of heavy rainfall/freshwater flooding, with higher tides due to persistent S winds also preventing rainwater from draining back into the Gulf.  

It shows locally heavier showers beginning the middle of this week in southern LA.  Widespread heavy rains associated with the developing TC arrive by Fri, and continue daily through the middle of next week!   See attached loop of ECMWF 24 hour rainfall.

 

Op ECMWF shows widespread 8"+ amounts from the FL Panhandle through coastal AL/MS and into much of central/southern LA and even extreme east TX, with local amounts up to 20"!   

 

Of course this is only one scenario, but all models have been trending toward a stronger W Atl ridge, which along with the retrograding cutoff low in the N. Gulf, supports the potential for a TC to track as far west as the central/western Gulf.  It would be nearly unprecedented for a tropical cyclone to directly impact LA or TX this early in the season.  The only one since 1850 that hit before Jun 10 was TS Arlene in 1959 (it hit LA at the end of May).  Hurricanes hit TX in mid-Jun in 1886, 1888 and 1921 and LA in 1934.   Most May-early Jun TCs coming from the Caribbean or Gulf track northward toward FL or turn NE toward Cuba and the Bahamas.

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

ECMWF prec.gif

ECMWF total QPF.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's starting to look like the SST anomaly in the Main Development Region might have an influence on the upcoming hurricane season. Ryan Maue tweeting:

 

"Need to investigate upwelling event that has led to dramatic cool water at surface off coast of West Africa ... part of entire Eastern Atlantic over 1°C below last 30-year climatology. Only 20°C actual SST at 10°N latitude is not very tropical."

 

He followed this with some chart comparisons between the current situation and that of the active 2005 season:

 

Ryan tweet1 Actual SST 2005 & 2018.jpgRyan tweet2 Anomaly SST 2005 & 2018.jpg

 

Links to tweets:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001555105387302912

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557856167059457

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557873426657280

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi everyone, just like Malcolm (@Blessed Weather) I mostly post on the specialist Teleconnections thread and also place many papers into our Research Portal. I thought that you might like to know that I have just produced a post on Hurricanes and Tornadoes.  My opening paragraph explains why it's there and not directly on this thread:

 

All About Hurricanes and Tornadoes - A Review of a Range of Papers

 

With the 2018 hurricane and tornado seasons underway, I feel that it would be appropriate to review a few papers ranging from the basics to rather more advanced topics. This specialist teleconnections thread is not intended to compete with any other threads but is designed to complement them. While the seasonal threads such as those on hurricanes, storms and tornadoes etc come and go, this thread retains a permanent record and reference point which can be referred to at any time in the future. 

 

I cover 5 "hurricane" papers, 2 "tornado" papers and 2 which overlap between both phenomena. These vary from simple fact sheets to more advanced topics.

 

Here's the link (it's at the bottom of page 3):

I will happily participate in any discussions related to this post or the papers and guides that I have reviewed there. Any member will be very welcome to participate on the teleconnections thread and/or comment on any papers in the research portal (link): 

https://www.33andrain.com/forum/51-teleconnections-research-portal/

 

I look forward to some interaction.  David :) 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back on May 17th I made a post about the impact of various teleconnections on the Atlantic Hurricane Season. My post can be found here:
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-more-technical-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=87620

 

Part of my post discussed the impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on levels of activity and here is an extract:

 

"The warm (positive) phase of the AMO reflects warmer SSTs across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region and is associated with high-activity eras for Atlantic hurricanes, such as has been in place since 1995. Conversely, the cold phase of the AMO is associated with low-activity eras. The AMO is currently in a warm phase (positive) and this is likely to persist through the coming season, although it should be noted the latest 3 month running mean filtered index to March 2018 is trending down and the AMO can be subject to sharp drops....."

 

Well the latest 3-monthly output (to April 18th) shows the AMO continues to rapidly decline and is now at the second lowest level on record for May since 1950. My comment about the "warm phase being likely to persist through the coming season" was clearly wrong but at least the "subject to sharp drops" comment was correct! So the latest AMO very much pointing to a lower activity hurricane season. 

 

AMO at April18 2018.jpg

 

Source: https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1004393724720263168

 

In addition, my teleconnections post (and subsequent posts above) covered the anomalously cool SST in the MDR off the west coast of Africa, also an inhibitor to an active hurricane season. The SST in this area is now running at the second coldest on record since 1985.


MDR SST June06 2018 Graph.jpg

 

Source: https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1004399748688707585

 

In conclusion, both AMO and SST are now pointing to a suppressed hurricane season.

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mid-June tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (10-20°N, 60-20°) are currently coldest on record (since 1982).  Likelihood for active Atlantic #hurricane season continues to diminish as these cold SSTs have been very persistent over past few weeks. https://t.co/MfUD59G8L5

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×