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33andrain

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13 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Wow.

Huge towers forming 

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New dedicated thread for Michael:

 

 

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Euro has been pretty consistent on spinning up a weak-mid TS from a tropical wave that is currently a few hundred miles west of Africa. Could have another named storm. GFS starting to see it too

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_4.png

gfs_mslpa_atl_13.png

two_atl_5d0.png

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Said Tropical wave looks and has looked pretty healthy.

667592156_tcmovieFinal(5).gif.624649af73bbef823509ae215144a70e.gif

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We aint done yet as MJO pulses into 2 and lower pressures in the western carribean looky what we may have again next week

 

 

 

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Leslie is a hurricane once again. I wonder how many ACE points she will add up when she is all said and done, which may not be for a while.

498597068_tcmovieFinal(7).gif.3001b239203fcea31923afc42e7f4b9d.gif

 

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11 hours ago, amugs said:

NHC has another one, two mist use the Navy !!

 

 

two_atl_5d0.png

Lol yep. They must know the Navgem scored the coup with Michael. It has a fairly robust tropical system down by the Yucatan again in 7-8 days. No other model is showing it. 

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HAS MICHAEL MARKED THE END OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON?

 

I am about to return from my business trip and I'm producing this post from my lap top without all my usual links to charts etc but I wanted to make the following points about the remainder of the hurricane season:

 

  • The SSTs across all 4 Nino regions are the highest that they have been all season and the tropical Atlantic has already responded with  another lull in activity.
  • Although another setback in the progress to a weak El Nino is still possible, "if" this happens with the usual 10 to 14 day time lag response, we would be into November -  when hurricane developments becoming increasingly rare.
  • African easterly wave (AEW) activity greatly reduces during the fall as the African convection activity steadily migrates southwards and the dry season gets underway in the northern tropics.  Nadene formed off shore and was probably the last AEW development of 2018.  A couple of models do take her remnants into the Caribbean with a Tropical Storm reforming, although this seems unlikely.  The models do show several minor systems in the tropical Atlantic but nothing really significant (up to yesterday's output).
  • Mid Atlantic activity, which has been at record levels all season, may still produce 1 or 2 further developments. Hurricane Leslie is about to hit Portugal and Spain as a Tropical Storm.
  • The main development region (MDR) migrates much further west towards the end of the season into the Caribbean and GoM.
  • STTs across the tropical Atlantic and in the GoM (which only fell slightly when Michael churned up the surface layers) are currently above average and remain conducive to assisting the development of any new disturbances (not withstanding other factors).
  • The Central American Gyre (CAG) which was largely responsible for spawning Michael can be active through October and November.
  • The CAG has weakened (at least temporarily) with the low level easterlies taking EPAC developments westwards replacing the south west monsoon type flow slightly further north. There is currently a weaker CAG further south in the SW Caribbean which remains under surface south westerlies. There are signs of systems getting closer to Central America in two weeks or so. Whether the CAG develops and expands northwards again is not certain at this stage.
  • CAGs really require the MJO to be in phases 8, 1 or 2 to produce substantial convective activity (as shown in the CAG paper that I reviewed on here recently). The  MJO was in decent amp phase 1 during Michael's development. It is now in phase 2 and is moving towards the COD.  In 10 days+,  GEFS do show it re-emerging  into phase 8 or 1 at decent amp again. So this, along with an extensive CAG setting itself up again, will be one to monitor towards the final week in October.
  • Even if a CAG does spawn another development, it is by no means certain that it will make it up to named storm status let alone a hurricane and the track may be different as well as the upper conditions. 
  • Meanwhile, the EPAC may well see several new late season developments as that region is likely to respond favorably to the higher Nino region SSTs.

 

Overall, the 2018 hurricane season has been extraordinary in so many ways and we cannot rule out one last surprise. 

 

Later next month I'll produce a hurricane season review. (unless someone else does one of course).   David :) 

 

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6 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Pretty incredible story of staying power. 

If im not mistaken we've been talking about Leslie for around 3-3.5 weeks now. And to think that some of its energy was pinched off from Florence. Amazing. 

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8 hours ago, Apophis said:

If im not mistaken we've been talking about Leslie for around 3-3.5 weeks now. And to think that some of its energy was pinched off from Florence. Amazing. 

A testament to the blockiness in the NATL. Lets hope it helps over the next few months!

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3 hours ago, 33andrain said:

A testament to the blockiness in the NATL. Lets hope it helps over the next few months!

And a resurgence of that same blockiness, but shifted further west into the NW Atl, combined with the typical short wavelength pattern for this time of year leading to cutoff lows traversing the central/eastern US, is what could make things very interesting along the East Coast come last week of Oct.  Seeing some hints of possible tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis in that timeframe in the eastern/central Gulf of Mexico or off the SE US coast, then heading N/NE.  However, even if nothing tropical forms the pattern is ripe with baroclinicity just off the East Coast.

 

 

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_336.png

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I post this FV3 run only for entertainment, but it illustrates the potential this pattern has.

 

fv3p_z500aNorm_namer_fh228-384 (2).gif

 

The signal in the ECMWF ensembles for a potentially significant hybrid East Coast storm last week of Oct is getting stronger:

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_264.png

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_312.png

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