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UPDATE ON POTENTIAL TS "PATTY" - NOW INVEST 96L

 

I posted on this disturbance yesterday (4 posts above this one) and NHC have increased the chances of this system making to a named storm (Patty) to 50% and she has just been allocated a potential development number of Invest 96L.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite data indicate that a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser is gradually becoming better
defined and continues to produce strong gusty winds mainly to the
east of the disturbance.  Although no significant development of
this system is expected during the next day or two, conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive by Tuesday, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of
the week while the system moves near or north of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

24a.PNG

Only slight model interest at this stage on the 6z.

24b.PNG

3 go to TS strength, 2 of these by tomorrow and one goes on to strengthen Patty into a cat 1 hurricane.within 5 days.

 

Invest 96L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 11, 2018:

Location: 15.5°N 54.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

goes16_ir_atl (41).gif

NHC expect the main development to occur towards the east of the current convective activity.

 

goes16_wv-mid_96L.gif

 

David :) 

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So far, 96L is in the shredder, but there are a few things already going for it in the upper level department. This shouldn't allow this system to develop, as the MDR is quite a hostile place this time of year, w/ the STJ draped there for the winter shearing anything that enters the area. The shredding westerlies can be seen disrupting any easterly flow on the south side, and thunderstorms are being sheared.

 

However, not all is unfavorable. With some help from the TUTT, there is actually some modest anticylonic flow in the upper levels, w/ southerly flow to the west and westerly flow to the north. As said above, though, no easterly flow exists (not that it should, good anticylonic outflow very rarely exists in high shear environments like these). Also, some upper divergence is evident (the more fibrous textured cloud emanating northward from the main convective area), which helps produce convection, allowing possibility of MSLP falls. 

 

These conditions should not radically change the fact that this environment is quite unfavorable currently, but could improve in the future. 

 

c0c74f1d-978f-4354-a38f-7150e9f6538d.gif.7b138b1bac08fb5222e7639354a171e8.gif

 

Also, a look at the MDR in general. I find it quite interesting just how convectively active the whole area is, given the calendar. Also: multiple troughs parading across the Atlantic; normal November fare. 

 

0f6defab-0c0a-4143-a367-363f63c41ada.gif.9766d8fa8aa4693271269a38eb9dc963.gif

 

 

 

 

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96L is at 50/90 now, so it's pretty likely there'll be another TC in 2018. 

 

Looking at the cloud pattern, there could be some organization at the sfc, w/ the deep convection persisting, usually meaning a more organized or organizing circulation under the convection. Of course, the high shear is obvious still, as all the convection gets blown to the NE, but as the NHC says, conditions will likely improve in the future. 

 

 

fe76e5f0-8006-4c4e-856d-ab9c277c8e5c.gif

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